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Those telegrams have long failed to mention why the bombings began. On that Saturday five months ago, in the early morning, Hamas fighters entered Israeli territory and slaughtered nearly 1,200 people –According to the last balance Last February – carried out by Agence France-Presse – most of them (about 800) were civilians, in addition to the kidnapping of more than 200. Of these hostages, 130 remained in Gaza, and it is not known exactly how many of them are alive.
In any case, data on Palestinian deaths are repeated not only by the media, but also by international bodies, such as the United Nations or the European Union, and even by the US government (which places them at “over 25,000”). ). But there is a problem with the numbers, according to a published article Last March 7 in Tablet Magazine: It's “not real.”
“Maybe what is happening is that the ministry in Gaza is giving false daily numbers that differ very little because they do not have a clear understanding of the behavior of natural numbers.”
Its author, Abraham Weiner, a professor of statistics at the University of Pennsylvania, asserts that this is “obvious to anyone who understands how natural numbers work” and provides a detailed explanation of why the data is falsified and how most of the victims may be more motivated fighters rather than women and children, as the Ministry of Health claims in Always Gaza. “The evidence is in their badly fabricated numbers,” Weiner says.
Although he admits that “there is not a lot of data available,” he says that “there is a little and it is sufficient.” Let's start with the daily casualty figures provided by Hamas, which include the total number and a specific number of women and children. Well, Weiner notes that the graph of total deaths in chronological order increases in “almost rhythmic succession” and asserts that this regularity is “certainly not real.”
What to expect, says this specialist, is “a little daily variation”: “In fact, the average daily number of victims reported during this period is 270 people, with a variation of plus or minus about 15%. This is a small variation.” Amazingly. He analyzes: “There must be days that are twice the average or more, and other days that are half or less.” He ventures: “Perhaps what is happening is that the Gaza Ministry gives false daily numbers that differ very little, because it does not have a clear understanding of the behavior of the numbers.” “Unfortunately, documented observational data are not available to formally test this conclusion, but the details of the daily census make the numbers suspicious,” Weiner warns.
/ Tablet Magazine / Salo Eisenberg
Secondly, the academic finds no relationship between the number of dead women and the number of children, which should go together (as a result, for example, of apartment building bombings). “On days when a large number of victims are female, there should be a large number of child victims, and on days when a small number of women have been killed, only a small number of children should be reported.” But, as the graphs show, it doesn't happen that way: the rate for women increases linearly and the rate for children rises dramatically for no reason.
The third piece of evidence that makes us not trust the numbers is that the number of dead women and children reported by Hamas does not match the number of men either. He believes that this is expected “because of the nature of the war.” However, “not only is there a positive correlation, there is a strong negative correlation, which doesn't make sense at all.” For example, Weiner points out, “On the three days when the number of males is close to zero, which indicates an error, the number of females is high.”
Another “clear red flag” was Hamas's assertion that about 70% of the victims were women or children. Weiner states that this total is “much higher than that recorded in previous conflicts with Israel” (where there were numbers verified by more than one source).
If the figure of 12,000 dead Hamas fighters is correct, “the ratio of non-combatants to combatants is remarkably low.”
The academic says: “If 70% of the victims are women and children and 25% of the population are adult men, then either Israel has not succeeded in eliminating Hamas fighters or the numbers of adult male victims are very low.” Especially when Hamas admitted, on February 15, that it had lost 6,000 fighters, meaning “more than 20% of the total reported casualties.”
The statistician asks: What does all this mean? “The Hamas Ministry will likely settle on an arbitrary daily total.” If the Israeli figure of 12,000 dead Hamas fighters is correct, Weiner says, “the ratio of non-combatants to combatants is remarkably low: at most 1.4 to 1 and perhaps as high as 1 to 1.” He concludes that this is an “urban war,” in which “combatants are embedded up and down civilian population centers,” showing that “a marked and successful effort is being made to avoid unnecessary loss of life.” The enemy who protects himself with civilians.”
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