Monday, July 22, 2024

Barkin's comments from the Fed boost the US dollar 💵

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Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin reviewed the economy, risks and outlook for US monetary policy today. Overall, he sees significant times of uncertainty ahead, and Barkin did not even rule out a rate hike at a time when the market is pricing in up to 150 basis points of cuts by the end of 2024:

  • Soft landing risks include the lagged impact of higher credit interest rates, external shocks, holding services inflation at high levels, and strong demand.
  • There is potential for additional price increases.
  • Lower long-term interest rates could stimulate demand for housing
  • The data point to a soft landing, but it is not a foregone conclusion.
  • The central bank is making real progress on inflation while the economy remains healthy
  • The semi-annual core inflation rate for personal consumption spending is now just below the 2% target.
  • Conviction on inflation and the economy will determine the future course of US interest rates.

USDIDX D1 interval

The dollar index is rising today, although it more or less stopped at the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level at 102.2. In a pro-growth scenario, the main resistance is the SMA200, which is around 103 points, and the market may want to test it.


Source: XStation 5

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