The Bay could get some much-needed rain with a rare set up of two high pressure systems set to dump a whole lot of wet on the North Island later this week.
Weather Watch reports the pressure systems will create a line of heavy tropical-like rain across the across the North Island.
“The heaviest most soaking rains [will affect] Northland, Auckland, Waikato and parts of Bay of Plenty,” a spokesperson for the weather company says.
“On the fringes, but still in some risk zone for heavy rain, are Gisborne and Hawke's Bay.”
The spokesperson says Thursday morning will see high number one lie over the South Island and southern Tasman Sea while high number two stretch east of Bay of Plenty and Northland.
“The line of rain that will develop will be fed by sub-tropical air thanks to high number two, meanwhile the high over the South Island will basically 'cradle' this rain - stopping it from moving away and helping intensify it,” they say.
“As the highs shift, change shape and merge we'll see this band of heavy rain expand over the North Island.”
They say that by Friday the high over the South Island will absorb the high to the north, creating a big barrier of high pressure over the South Island and lower North Island.
“This will then encourage a wet nor'easter which will feed down around Gisborne and Hawke's Bay creating a few heavy falls there, mainly in the ranges,” says the spokesperson.
“The rain clouds will march southwards into Hawke's Bay on Thursday and Friday then Wairarapa into Friday and Saturday.”
The spokesperson says both Thursday and Friday look quite wet for the upper North Island while eastern, central and more southern parts of the North Island are exposed to briefer heavier falls on Friday and Saturday.
“The tropical element to this rain is going to give it more oomph - and rainfall totals as far south as Wellinton may now reach 20 millimetres around late Friday-early Saturday,” they say.
The spokesperson says the areas most exposed to heavy rain are in the upper half of the North Island from the Far North to Lake Taupo and beyond that Hawke's Bay.
“Napier's rainfall totals, at this early stage, suggests Napier may get more than what Gisborne gets, with 60mm or so,” they say.
“Remember these totals are just a general guide - our mountains and ranges can really alter the figures.
“Keep an eye on our rain maps to better work out the chances of rain where you live, due to the volatile nature of this band of rain, and how narrow it is, there may still be more adjustments to totals and those most affected.”
The spokesperson asks people to please remember that this rain band is narrow.
“So for those on the fringes, drizzly showers that may not amount to much are to be expected,” they say.
“But for those many more people in the direct line of this rain band a soaking event with the risk of slips and flooding is possible.”