June 28, 2022

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The caribou concludes its worst week since the beginning of the epidemic |  Economie

The caribou concludes its worst week since the beginning of the epidemic | Economie

Madrid Stock Exchange’s photo.Vega Alonso (EFE)

The war in Ukraine continues to cast a shadow over the financial markets. Russia’s seizure of the Zaporizhia nuclear plant, the largest in Europe, after this morning’s attack, has revived the nerves of investors, who have once again turned to safer assets for fear that the conflict in Ukraine will lead to a new nuclear outbreak. accidents. Caribou decreased by 9% in The worst week since the start of the epidemic. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC are accumulating 10% per week, Milan losses around 13% and Britain’s Ftse losses around 7%.

With the exception of Wednesday, when Caribou finished in green with a gain of more than 1.5%, the Spanish selective rejected the rest of the week’s sessions in red. The The consequences of sanctions on Russia Rising raw material prices that could hurt the economic recovery are also fueling uncertainty in stock markets. According to Juan Jose Fernandez Figueres, director of analysis at Link Securities, investors are trying to assess the true economic impact of the war. “It is very complicated at the moment, especially when we do not know whether the war will last for a long time or how it will be resolved. Thus, given the great doubts that arose, their reaction was to randomly sell on the stock exchange.”

Spanish selectivity sank this Friday by 3.63%. The most punished values ​​are tourist values ​​- the Russian offensive presents a new obstacle to mobility – and to banks – because of Russian entities expelled from SWIFT The delay in raising interest rates -: Sabadell, Amadeus and Meliá depreciate by more than 8%. On the earnings side, Cellnex (+ 3.9%) and Solaria (+1.6%) stand out. Renewables have managed to escape the storm that has swept through the stock exchanges, by presenting themselves as a profitable alternative to the rising oil and natural gas prices. The rest of the places on the ancient continent also recorded strong falls on the last day of the week. Frankfurt and Paris fell by about 5%, Milan by 6% and London by 3.6%.

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Wall Street also opened lower this Friday, with losses of more than 1% in the Dow Jones and S&P 500 by the time European markets closed. Positive data on unemployment, which is at its lowest level since the start of the pandemic, was not enough to lift investor sentiment. The Russian offensive continues to weigh us more and concerns about this conflict prevail over any encouraging economic news.

Western markets are following in the footsteps of Asian indices, which closed sharply lower: the Nikkei in Hong Kong and Tokyo fell by about 2%. For its part, the Moscow Stock Exchange was closed for five days due to fear of the collapse of its listed companies and the ruble has not yet raised its head, after rating agencies Moody’s and Fitch classified Russian debt as a bond. rubbish, litter, litter. The dollar continues to strengthen against the euro, which fell nearly 1.3% on Friday. Investors flee towards safe haven values German debt is trading negative again The Spanish risk premium is around 100 basis points.

The embargo on Russian exports

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Russia’s invasion of its neighbor and its economic consequences have been shaking stock markets for more than a week. Energy, mineral and grain costs have risen in recent days, and although the sanctions do not yet directly affect Russian exports, they are suffering from a strong blockade. Many investors are afraid to buy Russian raw materials for fear that the process will not be carried out definitively due to the many obstacles that Russia is facing, either due to the possibility of port closures, due to cancellation of operations by major companies. Patricia García Sánchez de la Parreda, an analyst at MacroYield, said that shipping or due to other companies refusing to travel close to the conflict zone, due to the lack of war insurance.

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Experts agree that rising commodity prices are fueling fears of stagflation. Gas returns to 200 euros and oil, which was reduced in value on Thursday gathering Having set one record after another, it once again exceeded $115 a barrel. Refusal Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) And its external partners – including Russia itself – to pump more supplies in an effort to relieve pressure, have only exacerbated the situation. “Having oil at close to $120 is a problem. This is an indicator of inflation for central banks,” warned Diego Moren, an analyst at IG.

In fact, investors are also setting their sights on the monetary authorities’ next steps on whether they will tighten monetary policy to try to control price increases. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed that the institution is preparing to raise interest rates in March. Although this first rally looks less sharp than expected, it will likely be 25 basis points instead of 50, as investors believe. In Europe, for its part, it appears that the rate hike by the European Central Bank will be delayed (expected in the last quarter of the year). Despite the high rates of inflationThe European Central Bank is reluctant to make this change: the expectation is that it won’t happen until at least the beginning of next year. And this is one of the reasons why Spanish banks have collapsed on the stock exchange since Thursday 24, the day the Russian attack began: Sabadell has fallen 23.6% since then, Bankinter nearly 18.3%, Banco Santander 16%, BBVA 15.1% and CaixaBank 14.5 %.

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