Bloomberg Line – This week's data from Consumer price index In Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico for January this year. According to analysts at Bloomberg EconomicsFelipe Hernandez and Adriana Dobeta, results are likely to show mixed results depending on the trend reported in each country and thus with the monetary policy efforts.
In MexicoFor example, the rate of inflation is likely to accelerate, driven by food and energy prices. In ChileFor its part, inflation should continue to decelerate due to slower increases in food prices and smaller fundamental changes in an attempt to enter the target range of 3% +/- 1 percentage point.
In ColombiaAccording to the aforementioned experts, core and non-core inflation may have slowed in January, but remained above the central bank's expectations and the ceiling of the target range of 3% +/- 1 percentage point. Also in Brazil The news will be a decline in inflation bringing it closer to the top of the target range of 3% +/- 1.5 points.
On the other sideThe boards of the central banks of Mexico and Peru will meet this week to decide whether to make adjustments to monetary policy Reference interest rate. According to Bloomberg Economics analysts Felipe Hernandez and Adriana Dobeta, it is likely that in the case of Mexico this figure will be maintained, while in Peru it will be reduced, as a result of the cautious tone of the source.
Below are the economic events for this week by country and day:
he Wednesday 14 February It will be posted on Consumer price index for January 2024, which will likely decline to 4.43% y/y, near the top of the target range of 3% +/- 1.5 percentage points. “Another moderate inflation figure in January will confirm that Brazilian price gains are slowly losing steam,” Dobeta and Hernandez concluded.
he Thursday 15 February The minutes of the Chilean Central Bank's monetary policy meeting will be published
he Wednesday 14 February Numbers will be published Retail sales for December 2023. According to Bloomberg Economics analysts, the minutes should confirm that the discussion has moved from cutting or maintaining interest rates to the size of the cuts.
same day It will be known Industrial production corresponding to December 2023. Economists stated that they expect the authorities to vote unanimously to maintain the reference rate at 11.25% for the seventh meeting in a row.
in addition to, Trade balance for December 2023, which will likely fall to 8.65% y/y from the 9.3% announced in December and will still be above the target range of 3% +/- 1 percentage point. Economists emphasized that complementary and regulated food prices should explain most of the decline. “Essential goods and services should also contribute,” they noted.
For his part, he said: Thursday 15 February will be published GDP for the fourth quarter for 2023 and accumulated from last year.
same day It will be known Economic activity index for December For the year 2023.
he Thursday 15 February It will be posted on Economic activity index for December For the year 2023.
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