March 29, 2024

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Mathematical model indicating the probability of infection with the Corona virus at Christmas dinner

Mathematical model indicating the probability of infection with the Corona virus at Christmas dinner

covid micron variable Once again unleashed fear among the population, with The upward trend in coronavirus infections And with Christmas just around the corner, many are beginning to wonder whether or not it is safe to go to the lunch or dinner we have planned for these days.

To answer this question Samuel Morillas, Professor of Applied Mathematics at the Polytechnic University of Valencia (UPV) and IES Al-Andalus de Almuñécar (Granada) Professor Antonio Fernández-Baillo, have developed an easy method Mathematical model that you know about Odds of a person testing positive for COVID-19 مطابقة directly or indirectly.

“The idea is to put in numbers what we all know, and we should Avoid social gatherings spending a lot of time with people without a mask, Points out Morillas, who adds that as the number of events and attendees increases, “the risk of coming into contact with someone who will test positive for COVID increases.”

The mathematician says regarding the chances of contracting the coronavirus in a meeting, such as a Christmas dinner.

Let’s give an example: a person who attended 3 different social events, where they were with 8, 9 and 10 people, respectively, the probability that they had contact with a person positive for Sars-CoV-2 is 15%. “After three dinners, in almost all likelihood, 99% of people will encounter who has, in turn, come across with someone who will be positive for Covid and the latter has done so, too, on the chain.”

take this form basic possibility cumulative incidence of coronaviruses they estimate will be in the next 14 days. The professor adds that it is designed to raise awareness of the need to limit the number of events and attendance at the social activities we will participate in in the coming days and cautions that the model does not in any way intend to predict the odds of contagion, but merely to reflect how the odds of this will increase as the number of events and/or the number of events increases. attendees.

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