May 4, 2024

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Positive tone in markets starts ECB week |  markets

Positive tone in markets starts ECB week | markets

European stock markets are opening the week with a positive sign. This brings the Ibex 35 index up by 0.88% in the early stages of the session, which leads it to reclaim the 7,600 points level. Although the week is filled with important macroeconomic references and a barrage of business results, the most relevant event this week is undoubtedly the European Central Bank’s meeting next Thursday.

Preliminary readings for October of leading activity indicators for the manufacturing and services sectors, and PMIs prepared by S&P Global, are expected to track indicators pointing to a slowdown in private activity in major advanced economies.

In addition, at the end of the week, the first estimates of third-quarter GDP will be released for the United States and some major economies in the eurozone, variables that point to a strong acceleration in growth in the United States, after a consecutive quarterly contraction on a quarterly basis, and a sharp slowdown In the pace of growth in the major eurozone economies, especially in Germany, where the economy may have contracted in the quarter under review.

Likewise, towards the end of the week, preliminary CPI readings for October will be published in some of the larger Eurozone economies, readings that hopefully show how this variable, for the time being, shows no beginning signs of moderation.

Market expectations indicate a rate hike of 75 basis points, up to 2.00% (2009 levels), and there is also speculation about the possibility of changes in long-term loans to financial institutions (TLTRO), with the aim of draining a larger amount of liquidity.

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β€œThe European Central Bank meeting is part of a context in which final September inflation data in the eurozone confirmed last week a new rise of 0.7%, up to 9.9% year on year, just below the first reading (-0.1%).,” they explain from Singular Bank.

In the commodities market, oil gave up early gains after weak data on Chinese demand. Brent crude fell 42 cents to $93.08 a barrel, while US crude fell 41 cents to $84.64.