Reserve Bank of New Zealand sets record highs and expects further tightening

Enrollment rate increase

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand today made the biggest growth in history 75 basis points, which puts the official cash rate (TCO) at 4.25%, the highest level since early 2009. The acceleration contrasts with other central banks that have already eased the pace of tightening or expect to do so.

The RBNZ is at the forefront of monetary tightening, and it’s making it happen The most intense cycle since 1999, when OCR was introduced. After the October 2021 hike, it has hiked rates worth 400 basis points in nine consecutive meetings.

Today’s result is largely in line with market expectations and recent comments from policymakers. In last month’s annual report, Governor Orr highlighted the delay in the bank’s operations. “There’s still work to be done”.

More tension ahead

Policymakers have not only made a big hike today, but have also hinted at further tightening in the future to bring down inflation. They pointed out that the Official Cash Rate (OCR). “Achieving a higher level than the above, sooner rather than later”.

That’s what they expect now TOC reaches a maximum of 5.5% 2023 and 2024, higher than the 4.1% forecast in August. They expect rates to remain high for a long time and not fall below 5% before 2025.

The economy is very resilient and this has allowed the RBNZ to pursue this aggressive tightening strategy, but it is expected to take its toll.

The coming recession

The New Zealand economy has so far avoided recession, posting healthy growth of 1.7% in the second quarter of the year (q/q), although there were some red flags.

The RBNZ’s aggressive tightening, along with other factors, will ultimately weigh on economic activity. The central bank has already pointed out this fact Expect to enter recession next yearin part “Effect of Interest Rate Rise”.

Specifically, GDP is expected to contract by 0.5% in mid-2023 and not return to positive growth until the last quarter of 2024. During today’s press conference, the Governor made a discussion. “Shallow Time” Summary.

Inflation & Employment

The main driver of this intense RBNZ tightening cycle is continued high inflation. Headline CPI may have eased slightly to 7.2% yoy in Q3, but remains near a 32-year high in the previous quarter (7.3%).

Monetary policy makers believe that inflation remains the same “very high “ And to see more pressure on consumer prices, the CPI is expected to reach a 7.5% peak It will return below 3% in the next two quarters and in the second half of 2024.

The main factors are the strong labor market and high wages, and the central bank said today that the job “is above its maximum stable level”.

The unemployment rate was at a record low of 3.3% in the September quarter, and is near the lowest levels recorded in recent quarters. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand expects growth to rise significantly in the coming years, reaching 5.7% in 2025.

NZD reaction

Kiwis got a boost from today’s rate hike and the forecast for further tightening, while markets are eyeing small hikes from the US Federal Reserve and Reserve Bank of Australia.

Therefore, the NZD/USD Still supported today USD/NZD It fell to its lowest level since March. However, the Fed’s next recession forecast may make it harder to tighten.