SZA, Swift and Bridgers are very close to success, according to Grammy predictions

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Women are leading the major categories at this year's Grammy Awards: Names like SZA, Taylor Swift, Victoria Monet, Phoebe Bridgers, Olivia Rodrigo and Brandy Clark top the list.

But who will win the coveted house music awards on February 4?

Associated Press writers Maria Sherman and Jonathan Landrum Jr. break down the race for Grammy glory.

Album of the year

“World Music Radio”, Jon Batiste; “Register”, the boy genius; “Endless Summer Vacation” by Miley Cyrus; “Did You Know There's a Tunnel Under Ocean Boulevard,” Lana Del Rey; “The Age of Pleasure” by Janelle Monáe; “Courage”, Olivia Rodrigo; “Midnight” by Taylor Swift; “SOS”, SZA

Sherman: The level of talent here is out of this world… If Taylor Swift wins for “Midnights,” she will become the first artist in Grammy history to take home the top award four times. It would be breaking news, but I'm not sure I'll see it in the crystal ball. Instead, I see “SOS”.

From the above list, no album has received as much critical acclaim as SZA's “SOS.” He seems like the most obvious choice, no disrespect to the other candidates.

Landrum: First, Swift's “Midnights” came to mind, then my heart found SZA's “SOS.” But after thinking about it a little more, I couldn't forget “World Music Radio” by Jon Batiste, a multi-genre artist who won in this same category in 2022. That year, he surprisingly beat out nominees like Swift and Billie. Eilish, Lady Gaga, Olivia Rodrigo, and Justin Bieber, who have achieved greater commercial success. So, it's not a far-fetched idea that Batiste will get a chance. SZA seems like the obvious choice, but I'll take Batiste on this one.

General record

“The Cult” by John Baptist. “Not strong enough,” boy genius; “Flowers” ​​Miley Cyrus; “What Are You Made For?”, Billie Eilish; “On my mother”, Victoria Monet; “Vampire” Olivia Rodrigo; “Anti Hero” Taylor Swift; “Kill Bill,” SZA.

LANDROM: Like Victoria Monet's little daughter, my little girl sings the chorus of “On My Mama” more than any other song. I've seen how this song, born when Monet was struggling with postpartum depression, brings joy to people on car trips or at parties.

Look out, mom: Monet's song will rise to the top of this category.

Sherman: If you look at the 2024 nominations as a whole, Victoria Monet is the second most nominated (alongside Phoebe Bridgers and right behind SZA). I think this award is for you.

But just to be a devil's advocate: There may be a fact that the Academy gives Swift an award for “Anti-Hero,” largely because I'm not sure “Midnights” shines, but it looks like Monet will. Wins.

Song of the Year (Composers Award)

A&W, Jack Antonoff, Lana Del Rey and Sam Dio; “Anti Hero”, Jack Antonoff and Taylor Swift; “Butterfly” by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson; “Dance The Night,” Caroline Eileen, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt; “Flowers”, Miley Cyrus, Gregory Allday Hine and Michael Pollack; “Kill Bill,” Rob Beisel, Carter Lange, and Solana Rowe; “Vampire” Daniel Nigro and Olivia Rodrigo; “What Are You Made For?”, Billie Eilish O'Connell and Finneas O'Connell.

Sherman: This category is full of artists that the Recording Academy likes to honor: Jon Batiste, Taylor Swift, and Billie Eilish, in particular. (Conversely, artists who like to be nominated, but not so much to award: Lana Del Rey and Miley Cyrus, who have yet to receive a Grammy. I hope that changes.) My gut says this would be for Eilish, if her “Barbie” hits “What Are You Made For?” It doesn't get the Record of the Year award.

Landrum: It's hard for me to disagree. I think Miley Cyrus might have a shot at winning her first Grammy for “Flowers.” But I feel like, “What am I made for?” It was submitted for the Composer Prize. I'll leave it as another Grammy win for Eilish and her brother Finneas.

Best New Artist

Gracie Abrams is unique again..; Ice Spice; Candy name; Coco Jones; Noah Kahan; Victoria Monet; War and treaty

Landrum: Last year, jazz artist Samara Joy unexpectedly won first place in a wide-open category. But this year, there's a landslide winner: Victoria Monet.

Yes, it's a category full of Jelly Rolls, Ice Spice, Coco Jones, and War and Treaty. But despite these worthy nominees, there's one thing that separates Monet from the rest: Unlike the other nominees, the “On My Mama” singer is nominated in all three major categories (album, recording and song of the year). I think this has a lot of weight in its favour. It's your time here.

Sherman: Can I leave it as before?

Best Pop Solo Performance

“Flowers” ​​Miley Cyrus; “Paint the City Red” by Doja Cat; “What Are You Made For?”, Billie Eilish; “Vampire” Olivia Rodrigo; “Anti Hero” Taylor Swift.

Sherman: There's no doubt that these are all successes in themselves. I feel like this would be for Swift or Rodrigo. As much as it pains me to say it, I don't see a world where voters choose Doja Cat or Miley Cyrus over these two powerhouse stars, and I think Eilish's victory in “What Are You Made For?” It will be reserved for the Song of the Year category. I would love to see Cyrus win, but I've been disappointed before!

Landrum: I definitely think Cyrus has a really good shot at getting the No. 1 spot, but I feel like this is where Swift is going to make her mark. It's possible the trophy could go to Eilish or Rodrigo, but it's hard for me to imagine Anti-Hero being left out, especially after Swift's exceptional year.

Best rap performance

“The Hillbillies” Baby Kim and Kendrick Lamar; “Love Letter,” Black Thought; “Rich Flex”, Drake and 21 Savage; “Scientists and Engineers”, Killer Mike, Andre 3000, Future and Erin Allen Kane; “The Players”, Koy LeRae.

Landrum: Kendrick Lamar and his cousin Baby Kim won this category last year. But I don't see the family duo coming out victorious this time around for their song “The Hillbillies.” I think it might be Drake and 21 Savage's “Rich Flex”, which was a certified hit.

But in the world of rap, last year's biggest wave in the category was created by Killer Mike's “scientists and engineers,” which includes Future, Eryn Allen Kane and Andre 3000 of the legendary hip-hop duo OutKast. The standout track is very well crafted with Future's husky vocals, Kane's excellent vocals, and great verses delivered by Mike and Andre 3000, who has been doing more flute music than rapping lately.

When Andre 3000, also known as 3 Stacks, blesses us with his lyrical expertise, we all listen intently. I think the voters and everyone involved heard him loud and clear.

Sherman: “Scientists and Engineers” is the best in my opinion, but I would like to mention “Players” by Coy LeRae. It's Grandmaster Flash's “The Message” for me, and that song was everywhere for a while, but maybe not for the Grammys.

Best solo performance in the country

“In Love With You” by Tyler Childers; “Buried” Brandy Clark; “Fast Car” Luke Combs; “Last Thing on My Mind” by Dolly Parton; “The White Horse” by Chris Stapleton.

SHERMAN: Maybe the Recording Academy is doing something smart by nominating Dolly Parton, in a year when new country music artists are finding success with audiences of all types. “Last Thing on My Mind” is a song he has performed many times throughout his career. He reimagined a Doc Watson tribute album in 2023, the same year he released his debut rock and roll album, “Rockstar.”

However, I would love to see Brandi Clark win. She's tied with Taylor Swift and Miley Cyrus with six nominations, and I think this is the right time for her to finally take home the trophy.

Although it could also be Luke Comb's version of Tracy Chapman's classic “Fast Car.” This led to him dominating the Country Music Awards last year.

Landrum: It would be appropriate for Barton to win. I think my nomination in this group shows that this myth is still more relevant than ever. Barton was very impressive in her first-half performance in the Thanksgiving Day game between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders last year. He stole the show.

But I think the real competition is between Stapleton and Combs, whose “fast car” could use a little more gas to take the lead.

Best R&B Performance

“Summer's So Hot” Chris Brown; “Back in Love”, Robert Glasper with Sir and Alex Isley; “Intensive Care Unit”, Coco Jones; “How It Makes You Feel,” Victoria Monet; “Kill Bill,” SZA.

Landrum: This is a difficult decision. In my opinion, it's a three-woman race between SZA, Monet, and Coco Jones. There is a strong appeal with the silky phrase “How does it make you feel?” by Moét, which features classic touches throughout. Jones' “ICU” was so influential that Justin Timberlake jumped on the remix. But everything indicates that SZA's revenge anthem “Kill Bill” will win. His label helped propel “SOS” to elite status, and it's the only song in the category to be nominated for both record and song of the year. I'd be surprised if the trophy went somewhere else.

SHERMAN: This is SZA, there's no doubt about that.

Best Mexican Music Album (including Tejana)

“Hand Embroidery”, Anna Barbara; “La Sanchez”, Lily Downs; “Mother Flower”, Fleur de Toloache; “Love like in old movies”, Lupita Infante; Genesis, featherweight.

Sherman: Regional Mexican music, an umbrella term that includes mariachi, banda, corridos, norteña, serreño and other genres, had an exceptional year. However, it has been ignored by academia, in many ways.

But, if the Grammy Awards are meant to reflect some sort of cultural consensus between the genders, then this award should certainly go to the featherweight. For many people around the world, and certainly in the United States, he is the reason they know this type of music.

But it won't be easy. There are many amazing women in this category, including American mariachi band Flor de Toloach and Lupita Infante, the granddaughter of legendary actor and singer Pedro Infante.

LANDROM: Oh, I feel your pain. Many in the rap community have complained over the years that Academy voters are “alienated” by contemporary popular culture. Definitely worth treating.

Here is my prediction for the winner in this category:

Peso Pluma is without a doubt the most popular artist. Maybe he will win. But if we're talking about the artist with the best album in this category, it should be given to Lila Downs or Ana Bárbara.

Of the two, I chose Anna Barbara. Downs' voice is a powerful force mixed with traditional Mexican instruments. It's a beautiful harmony. But I'm leaning toward Ana Bárbara's “Hand Embroidered” because it's the most complete album, with songs by two of Mexico's most important artists: Vicente Hernandez and Cristian Nodal. It bridges the gap between old and new school. With his soothing voice I never felt like jumping to the next song.

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The 66th Annual Grammy Awards will air on February 4th.