The odds of space debris causing casualties increase by 10% in the next decade

It is true that in recent years a great deal of effort has been made to avoid increasing debris in orbit: from reusable rockets to planning future missions to “Clean up” the spaceBig agencies and private companies are looking for new ways to keep space debris out. Usually, unusable parts are sent into a secure orbit (the so-called ‘orbit cemetery, which lies between 660 and 800 km from the Earth’s surface). However, many parts are re-entering the atmosphere in an uncontrolled manner and debris can land anywhere. Fortunately, the great expanse of the oceans caused the majority of collisions to occur in areas with water; The problem is the huge increase in launches in the past decade (for example, in 2021, all records were broken, with 1,400 new satellites in orbit).

Taking this scenario into account and using satellite data from the past 30 years, Michael Byers and their colleagues at the University of British Columbia, Canada, ran models to predict “Anticipating the victims‘Or the danger to human life as a result of the uncontrolled re-entry of missiles over the next decade, given the potential danger to people on land, at sea (ships) or aircraft, and given the remaining partially intact missile fragments.

As detailed in their study published in ‘natural astronomy“According to standard practice, if a ‘typical’ missile return spreads debris over 10 square metres, there is a 10% chance of ‘one or more casualties in the next decade.’ In addition, it refers to the Southern Hemisphere residents as The most vulnerable areas to receive this dangerous space debris.The authors note that “the probability of landing rocket objects in the latitudes of Jakarta, Dhaka and Lagos is about three times higher than those in New York, Beijing or Moscow.”

However, the origin of the “uncontrolled” missiles, and therefore their responsibility for them, will be first of all the USA (71%), followed by China, the European Space Agency and Russia (albeit in much higher proportions). minor), areas where this space debris is unlikely to fall.

The growing problem of space debris

“The work of Byers and collaborators raises a key aspect of sustainability applicable to the use of space: the uncontrolled spread of launches poses a danger to Earth’s population that cannot be ignored,” he explains. David Gallady Enriquezresearcher in the Astronomy Department of the Calar Alto Observatory and coordinator of the ICOSAEDRO group (the effect of satellite constellations on radio and optical detectors) at the Spanish Astronomy Society and member of the CB7 committee of the International Astronomical Union, to SCM. “LEO remains a ‘lawless city.’ Congestion with satellites jeopardizes sky observation, which has put the entire global astronomical community on alert for war. But alarm bells have also been raised in the aerospace industry itself due to the increasing risk of collisions in space, which It could destroy low orbit as an economic resource for decades, if not centuries.”

The authors still believe there is hope. “We already have the technology for controlled readmission – they point out – but we lack the collective will to use it because of its high costs.” For this reason, they support multilateral agreements to address the problem of space debris, otherwise “countries that travel into space will continue to export these risks unnecessarily.”