Three infographics that explain why something “extremely anomalous” is happening in the Atlantic (and why we’ll see the consequences)

We’ve been hearing for days that the Atlantic is weird, that it’s hotter than usual,”An open petrol canBut the problem with these expressions (even metaphors as “scorching” as the last one) is that they’re hard to understand. What exactly does it mean that the surface of the Atlantic Ocean is warmer than usual?

A picture and a thousand words. Or, in this case, three. Three photos. The interesting thing about what is happening in the ocean is that three pictures are enough to understand not only the dimensions of the problem, but also its short-term consequences. Let’s start from the beginning

Is the Atlantic really that hot? La Nina was with us three winters. This means that it was spreading a “cooling effect” across the entire planet. However, the thermal anomalies (as can be seen in the graph below) were quite astonishing. It is true that they did not last all year and that, out of context, we might think of them as isolated phenomena.

The problem is that the context is called 2023. Since the beginning of the year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in North America has been noticing signs that El Niño is just around the corner (we’re already there, in fact). That raised a key question: Without the coolant effect, what would happen?

And at least we already have the answer on the surface of the Atlantic Ocean: heat, heat, heat. Leon Simmons Collected All measurements are from 1982 and the anomaly in 2023 is still a long way off. But if we look back at the past weeks, what we’re seeing is something really crazy.

Why is this happening? Another thing that has “baffled” the scientific community (and which we think is related) is the strange atmospheric circulation that exists in the ocean. At this time of year, as can be seen in Comparison of Gonzalez Alemanthe winds must be strong and the Azores hurricane (which originates in the ‘gap’ between the trade winds and westerly winds) must be ‘at its best’.

This is not the issue. Right now, there is a “strong anticyclone” in Northern Europe and this is causing very strange atmospheric patterns, phenomena and cycles for the time of year we are in. Among these phenomena is the surface temperature of the North Atlantic (which initial theories relate to the weakening of the trade winds – which in these conditions are unable to cool it).

What are the consequences of that? Well, it’s not entirely clear. In a literal sense, it’s completely new territory and no one is very clear about what’s going to happen in the medium term. What the models are starting to predict for the next three months is that it will rain more than usual in Spain. In other words, excellent news (maybe) related to the same phenomenon.

The fact that the anticyclone so far north will bring more DANA and basins to our country: that is, more rain. “There is a high probability (>60%) that precipitation is in the upper layer (in 30% of rainy years)”, Gonzalez Alemán explained.

I mean, it’s good news. The truth is that even today, futures drawn by weather models are one of the best-case scenarios we could have: we could have a hot summer and the temperatures will go away. in a crescendo; But it will rain and with the rain everything is better.

In Xataka | There is a 98% chance that the next five years will be an oven. All thanks to Nino

Image | ECMWF