July 14, 2024

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US economic reports will be delayed in the event of a closure…

US economic reports will be delayed in the event of a closure…

Bloomberg – The impending shutdown of the federal government will delay the publication of various reports on the American economy, which… It would leave markets, companies and policymakers without reference points To make decisions in the country and in the rest of the world.

Important data such as the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report and the Commerce Department’s main inflation gauge will not be released on their scheduled release dates, based on the agencies’ performance in previous shutdowns. During the government shutdown in 2013, employment and other reports were delayed.

For his part, a spokesman for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which is affiliated with the Department of Labor and is responsible for publishing the employment report, as well as information on consumer prices, indicated that in the event of a shutdown, “work will suspend the collection, processing, and distribution of data.” Once funding is restored, BLS will resume normal operations.

Both the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the White House They submitted their requests for comment To the Office of Management and Budget, which collaborates with government agencies to finalize new emergency plans. According to the latest plan presented by the Department of Commerce, which includes the BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and the Census Bureau, in 2021, most of the services and activities of these two agencies will cease during the shutdown.

How long will the lockdown last?

The US government is headed toward a shutdown on October 1, as far-right Republicans in the House of Representatives prepare to block an extension of existing funding. Given the ideological divide, the shutdown could last weeks or longer, which could complicate the Federal Reserve’s decision at its October 31-November 1 meeting.

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Most reports coming out next month will refer to September data, completing what is expected to be a strong quarter for the US economy. in general, Inflation has fallen and the labor market remains strongSupporting consumer spending and strengthening calls that the world’s largest economy can avoid recession.

A lot of that depends on how the Fed operates. president Jerome Powell He and his colleagues emphasized that they rely on incoming economic data to guide their decisions. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates steady when it meets next week, but November remains very volatile.

The Federal Reserve is a self-financing organization that does not depend on government appropriations and has continued to operate during previous shutdowns. A spokesman for the central bank declined to comment.

In the event of a government shutdown, the following reports may not be published during October:

a report Period from
reference
date
Publishing
Job offers in
Tremors
August October 3
Non-farm jobs September 6 October
Price index
project
September October 11
Price index
consumer
September October 12 degrees
Retail September October 17
Homes started September October 18
New home sales September October 25
Gross Domestic Production Third quarter October 26
Personal consumption expenditure inflation and spending September October 27

However, policymakers are also looking at a variety of third-party data to be released, such as indicators of manufacturing and services activity. Institute of Supply Management (supply management), Private payrolls from the ADP Research Institute and used home sales from National Association of Realtors (National Association of Realtors).

Regional Federal Reserve Banks, which do not have federal employees, will continue to operate and publish surveys on manufacturing and business conditions.

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With assistance from Eric Wasson and Craig Torres.

Read more at bloomberg.com