A crazy week in the electricity markets: from record prices to less than half in a matter of hours – El Periodico de la Energía

Most European electricity markets have ever recorded a price hike in the days leading up to Christmas. In some cases, the records were set by the hour as well. Gas is one of the key elements behind these prices, as it also hit an all-time high in the penultimate week of the year. Carbon monoxide price hike₂ They also favored the upside, in a week when demand fell across the board and wind and solar production increased in some markets.

Solar photovoltaic, solar thermal and wind energy production

In the week of December 20, a solar energy production It rose more than double what it had recorded in the previous week in the German market. On the contrary, in the rest of the markets analyzed in AleaSoft Energy Forecast Production fell between 25% of the French market and 64% of the Portuguese market.

For the week beginning Monday, December 27, Solar production forecast AleaSoft Energy Forecast It indicates an increase in production with this technology in the markets of Spain and Italy. On the contrary, a contraction in production is expected in the German market.

the wind production It rose 52% in the Iberian Peninsula and 4.4% in the French market during the fourth week of December compared to the previous week. On the contrary, production with this technology decreased by 40% in the Italian market and 18% in the German market.

as wind production forecast AleaSoft Energy ForecastThe last week of the year is expected to see an increase in production in Germany, France and Spain and a decrease in Italy and Portugal.

Electricity demand

During the week of December 20 Electricity demand Weekly declines in all European markets analyzed before AleaSoft Energy Forecast. Although in some countries such as France, during the first days of the week values ​​with an upward trend were recorded, reaching the daily maximum for more than 10 months, namely by setting 1820 GWh on December 22, a figure that has not been recorded. It has been exceeded since February 12 when a daily demand of 1,887 GWh was recorded. However, as the last days of the week approached and on Christmas Eve, demand in all markets fell, so that the total demand for the week ended up being less than the week of December 13 in all markets analyzed.

The biggest drop occurred in Italy, with a drop of 12%, closely followed by the drop recorded in Portugal, with a drop of 11%. France was the country with the lowest variance in weekly demand, falling 2.6%.

the Electricity demand forecast for AleaSoft Energy Forecast They suggest that in general at the European level during the week of December 27, the downtrend will continue in most markets. This behavior is predicted by the effects of the year-end to weekend holidays, and by predictions of slightly cooler temperatures.

European electricity markets

In the week of December 20, prices for almost all European electricity markets increased compared to the previous week. The largest increase was recorded in Mercado Nord Pool of Nordic countries and was 95%, although the weekly average for this market, at €201.19/MWh, was the lowest among all markets analyzed. Percentage increases in other markets where prices have risen were more moderate, at 2.5% of MIBEL . Market from Spain and Portugal and 6.8% of EPEX SPOT سوق Market from Germany. The only market where prices fell was N2EX Market From the UK, which recorded a decrease of 2.5%, but nevertheless, the highest average weekly price for the week, €350.12 / MWh, was reached in this market.

Almost all electricity markets have analyzed daily price records recorded in the penultimate week of 2021. On December 21, the Nord Pool and EPEX SPOT markets in the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium recorded the highest price in their history, €309.78/MWh, €429.84/MWh. hour, €431.98/MWh and €432.99/MWh respectively. in a IPEX Market In Italy, the historical maximum daily rate was recorded so far, 437.94 euros / MWh, on December 22. On the same day, the EPEX SPOT market in France reached the second highest price traded in the spot market so far, at €452.94/MWh. In the case of Spain and Portugal, €383.67/MWh on December 23rd represents the new daily price record in the Iberian market.

Hourly price records were also set in some markets during the fourth week of December: €420.03/MWh between 16:00 and 17:00 on December 21 in the North Market, €620/MWh between 5:00 pm and 6:00 p.m. :00 p.m. on the same day in the Netherlands, €533.19/MWh between 8:00 a.m. and 9:00 a.m. on December 22 in Italy and €409.00/MWh in the hours included between 6:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. on December 23 in Spain and Portugal.

Over the weekend, prices were lower compared to the first part of the week and daily values ​​were between €140/MWh and €230/MWh.

Although demand for electricity was lower in all markets and wind and solar production was higher than in the previous week in some cases, electricity market prices were largely affected by gas prices which returned to record levels during the previous week. Penultimate week of the year and those of CO₂ that remained high.

Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting with data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.

Electricity futures contracts

Electricity futures prices for the following quarter had a heterogeneous behavior in the European markets analyzed in AleaSoft Energy Forecast. If the closing prices of the December 17 and December 24 sessions are compared, it is noted that at the end of the fourth week of the month, the prices of electricity futures contracts for the first quarter of 2022 fell in all markets except for the Iberian and Italic Peninsulas. . It was exactly EEX سوق Market In Italy, where the lowest price increase was recorded, with a growth of 0.3%. On the other hand, the EEX market in Spain recorded the largest increase, with a difference of 5.9%. At the other end is ice market United Kingdom, a decrease of 15%. The lowest price reductions were recorded in the EEX market in France and Nasdaq market From the Nordic countries, both are down 0.4%, although the session being analyzed in the latter is the December 23 session.

In the case of future electricity prices for next year 2022, the behavior was different. Price increases were recorded in most of the markets analyzed. The exception was the ICE market in the Nordic countries, where there was a decrease of 3.1%. The UK ICE market was where prices for this product remained with the smallest difference between the dates analyzed, with a difference of 0.2%. Also in this product, the EEX market in Spain was the market with the highest price increase, with an increase of 22%, followed by OMIP . market In Spain and Portugal, an increase of 19% in both countries.

Brent, fuel and carbon dioxide₂

future TTF gas in a ice market It set a new price record during the penultimate week of the year. On Tuesday, December 21, the front month futures closed at 180.27€/MWh and during today’s session it reached 187.79€/MWh, the highest price ever recorded. But at the end of the week, prices fell significantly and closed on Friday the 24th 36% below the close on Wednesday. The market also opened on Monday, December 27 with declines of around 20%.

Lower gas futures prices also dragged down futures contracts for coal rights and CO2 emissions₂. future API 2 Carbon For the first month, the ICE market fell 12% during the week, spurred by gas and news that Russia is increasing its production of the metal.

On the other hand, the future CO2 emissions rights₂ in a EEX سوق Market As for the reference contract in December 2022, it has held at historically high levels, but with a short-term downtrend. During the week of December 20, prices followed the pattern of gas futures, reaching their maximum for the week on Tuesday, with €80.92 per ton, and ended up falling by 8.0%.

futures prices for Brent oil For the month-to-month front, the ICE market has been sideways for the past three weeks, between levels characterized by a long-term downtrend and a medium-term uptrend. During the week of December 20, prices rose 6.5% to close the Friday session at $76.14 a barrel. The week began with lower prices in the early hours of Monday due to fears of a significant drop in demand due to the impact of the Omicron variable of the Corona virus, which caused the cancellation of thousands of flights, but this fear was offset by the fall. In the US crude oil reserves, which were higher than expected.

Analysis of the prospects for energy markets in Europe and financing of renewable projects

In the face of this scenario Macrofolatydad that are experienced in the energy markets, it is necessary to have Electricity market price forecast Reliable and consistent, both as a basis for A robust energy buying and selling strategy that protects against adverse market situations, regarding the status of Financial models for new renewable energy projects.

in a AleaSoft Energy Forecast a Monthly webinar series To analyze the evolution and prospects of energy markets in Europe. It is the ideal periodic event for professionals in the energy sector to stay abreast of the current events in the sector. The next session will be held on January 13th It will be attended by invited speakers from PwC Spain To analyze the impact of the current regulatory situation on the development of PPAs, off-site, on-site and on Financing renewable energy projects.

fountain: Aleasoft Energy Forecast.

Views after:
2