Agenda from 19 to 23 June on the stock market-Dirigentes Digital

During the week we left behind, the markets maintained one concern: the central banks’ new monetary policy decisions.

Expectations were fulfilled, and the Federal Reserve stopped during this meeting the price increase that had continued during the previous months, although it left the door open for future increases in its next meetings.

The European Central Bank, for its part and as a discount market, raised its general interest rates by 25 basis points, setting them at 4%, one of the highest rates since the establishment of the institution.

During this week, the markets will not have a lot of relevant data that could particularly affect their behavior, however, it will be the turn of the Bank of England, which will take new decisions on interest rates in the UK.

At the national level, last week, the IBEX 35 was about to overcome the level of 9,500 points, despite the fact that during Friday’s development it broadly exceeded it, which the Spanish stock market was close to reaching. annual maximum.

These are the milestones that will determine the behavior of stock markets during this week, from June 19 to 23:

Monday

The first session of the week will not contain much important data for the markets. Among them, the unemployment rate for May in Hong Kong stands out, for which a level of 2.8% is expected, which is a “very good” figure, according to Rafael Ojeda, macro analyst at Fortage Funds.

Hong Kong is one of the most expensive cities in the world and its unemployment rate is practically non-existent. However, this good unemployment rate does not lead to a decrease in interest rates, ”the analyst explains.

The situation in China differs from that in Europe, which has begun to cut interest rates to “revitalize its economy,” according to Ojeda’s analysis.

Tuesday

In the second session of the week, the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy meeting will be known, and it is “interesting” to see what actions Australia is taking after the recent hikes in interest rates.

In Japan, industrial production will be published, which is expected to decline and is “relevant” data because it indicates that the Japanese economy is “weakening,” according to Rafael Ojeda, in line with Japan’s policy of weakening its currency to continue exporting at the levels it did until now.

On Tuesday, the Producer Price Index for Germany will also be known, which is expected to decline to 1.70% in the annual figure and -0.7% in the monthly figure, which may indicate “that inflation may decrease significantly in Europe, although Of the dangers of a recession, Rafael Ojeda says, is clear.

In the US, the markets will still be paying attention to the comments of James Bullard, a member of the Federal Reserve Board, which could “move the market”. Likewise, as the Fortage Funds analyst points out, it will be important to see the building permit data, as not much change is expected, although it could increase slightly.

Wednesday

In the middle of the week, the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting are expected, in which an accommodative tone is expected, following the same line and which will be important above all for the Southeast Asian markets.

In the UK, several macroeconomic data, such as the annual and monthly core CPI, will be released as a significant drop is expected and means inflation is coming down due to the “sharp hike in interest rates by the Bank of England,” says Ojeda. .

For its part, the overall CPI rate is also expected to decline, which indicates that the British economy is “slowing down significantly.”

Likewise, net public sector loans in the UK will be reported and expected to decline, which translates to “a reduced need for public sector financing, which is an interesting fact and reveals that the ‘UK economy is in a bad slump’,” says the Fortage Funds analyst.

In the US the Mortgage Application Index will be known and the US market will also remain waiting for the appearance of Jerome Powell.

Thursday

On Thursday, eyes will still be on the BoE’s decision on interest rates, as an increase of 25 basis points is expected, from 4.50% to 4.75%.

We will also have the first quarter current account in the US which “can move the market,” according to Rafael Ojeda. Unemployment claims that are expected to “down” will also be important and this is important information because “Powell is following them carefully to decide whether or not to raise interest rates,” the analyst says.

Also known as used home sales for the month of May, they are expected to decline slightly.

In Europe, Eurozone Consumer Confidence will be published for May, where expectations are expected to improve “slightly, but remain clearly negative,” says the analyst.

Friday

On the last day of the week, PMIs for the manufacturing and services sectors will be published in Australia, where “dips” are expected, which translates into a slowdown in the economy, Ojeda explains.

We will also learn about the UK’s Gfk Consumer Confidence, which is expected to be negative and reflects weak consumer confidence.

In Japan, the headline and core consumer price index, which is expected to decline. The Japanese economy is run on the periphery and is “completely content with the government, which operates differently from international markets,” explains Rafael Ojeda.

In Spain, the GDP will be published for the second quarter, when it is expected to increase to 0.5% and the annual, when it is expected to reach 3.8%, which is positive data and means that the economy and government measures are starting to work, although the analyst warns that seasonality important and that tourism has a weight closely related to this data.

Finally, manufacturing, services and composite PMI data will be released in Europe, the UK, France and the US, which are important and give clues about the health of the economies.

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