Experts believe that the price of a barrel of Brent crude will trade between 80 and 100 dollars this year

The price of a barrel Brent oilwhich could fluctuate between 80 and 100 dollars this year, will be conditioned, among other factors, by the development of the Chinese economy, the slowdown in advanced economies, which could enter into recession, or the impact of monetary policies on the price of the dollar.

According to several analysts consulted by Efe, the price of petroleum can bear high volatilitywhich will also be affected by news related to the development of the global economy, or more specifically about the United States and China, as well as by news related to the development of the global economy decisions OPEC + on production or the International Energy Agency (IEA) in managing its reserves.

For IG analyst Diego Morín, the entry of several economies into recession will be the main determining factor in the price of oil this year, which will trade between 80 and 100 dollars, which is a situation It could get worse if the Chinese economy deteriorates a lot Due to the explosion of Covid-19 cases. In this sense, he indicated that a situation similar to what happened in 2008 could occur, from a sharp drop in its price due to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers: before it was trading at $150 and later changed to less than $40. Now it could drop to $60 if the economy gets worse.

Morin indicated that the High interest rates To contain inflation, especially in the US (now between 4.25% and 4.5%), will end up causing a recession, which is the only possible way to control inflation, which will end up affecting oil prices. In his view, the price of Brent crude now less conditional Because of the war in Ukraine or through new sanctions that could be imposed on Russia for its oil exports, details of which would be needed.

For his part, XTB analyst Manuel Pinto considered that the demand for crude oil this year and its price will be marked by the reopening of China, because it can increase its consumption. However, Pinto indicated that the price of Brent crude will be affected by the impact on the dollar of the interest rate hike in the United States on price moderation or other decisions, such as the decision taken by Saudi Arabia this week to lower its price. Oil.In Asia and Europe due to lower demand. He added that the measures that OPEC + may adopt will also affect the development of Brent crude, which now has levels of support (bearish stops) at $61 and resistance (bullish stops) at $93.

For his part, the analyst at Renta 4, Alfonso Batalla, explained that the average price of Brent crude this year Between 80 and 85 dollars a barrel And that would be conditional on the volatility and cases of reopening China, which is now coming from negative news and which has constrained demand. Sanctions imposed on Russia, high reserves and a reduction in production capacity (now companies are not looking for large wells, but are exploiting small wells with low volume) are other conditions that will affect the price of Brent crude.

In addition, he commented that the OPEC + meeting in June (it wants to keep the price of its barrel at around $100) may decide on new daily production cuts, which will have a negative impact on inflation and interest rates and may deepen. in the next recession. Before the market closed on Friday, it was a barrel Brent Oil is down just over 7% this week from around $86 to $79.

Last year, the price of Brent oil It ranged from $139.13 closing on March 7, a few days after the start of the Russian war in Ukraine, and a low of $75.11 on December 9. In annualized account, 10.5% revalued, from $77.78 at the end of 2021 to $85.91 on the last day of last year. The euro’s value hit last year’s high of $1.1495 on February 10 and a low of $0.9536 on September 28. In 2022, its value decreased by 6%, since 2021 it ended at $1.137 and last year at $1.0705.