Hurricane season begins in the Atlantic Ocean next week

(CNN) – Hurricane season will begin in the Atlantic on June 1, but the weather doesn’t always follow the calendar and meteorologists began monitoring a system in the Atlantic this week.

The National Hurricane Center highlighted an area of ​​rain and storms in the northeast-central Bahamas with a small chance of becoming a tropical system in the next two to seven days.

Despite sea surface temperatures across much of the Atlantic, including near the Bahamas, which are about 1-2°C above normal, the system faces an uphill battle if it is going to become low. tropical or hurricane

“Strong upper winds and dry air are expected to hinder development as the system is generally moving north-northeast at 5 to 10 mph over the southwest Atlantic over the next day or so,” the hurricane center noted.

However, it’s a good reminder that hurricane season is just around the corner, and now is a good time to review your hurricane plans if you live along the coast or in a flood-prone area.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) advertisement Which will release its first forecast for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday.

Colorado State University released its first forecast of the season in April and expects slightly below average activity, largely due to the current neutral conditions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation weather pattern.

This oscillation is a recurring weather pattern that originates in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, affects weather worldwide, and has three phases: neutral, El Niño, and La Niña.

According to the Climate Prediction CenterConditions are not expected to remain neutral as long as an El Niño is expected to develop in the Pacific Ocean over the next two months.

“How quickly El Niño occurs can have a significant impact on the evolution of the hurricane season, as it is one of the main weather patterns affecting the tropical seasons in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans,” said CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller. “You can’t accurately predict this hurricane season without anticipating when and how intense El Niño will hit this fall. [boreal]”.

According to the Climate Center, “There is a high probability of an El Niño on the horizon.”

Traditionally, El Niño prevents cyclonic activity in the Atlantic Ocean, while La Niña or neutral conditions create an environment more conducive to the development of tropical storms.

“However, the big unpredictable factor this season is the very warm Atlantic Ocean,” Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist in Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Sciences told us. “If these warm anomalies persist throughout the hurricane season, they will likely cause less wind shear impact than we typically record.”

The vast majority of the Atlantic Ocean will experience warmer-than-normal temperatures by the end of May 2023. Credit: CNN

Wind shear is the change in wind speed and direction with altitude. The more severe it is, the more interrupted the formation of tropical systems.

Klotzbach has followed several climate models closely and tells us that at least three of the leading models predict a moderate to strong El Niño this summer or fall, but the same models only predict wind shear a little higher than normal.

The absence of strong wind shear conditions coupled with very warm ocean temperatures across the Atlantic could indicate that, despite El Niño, this year’s Atlantic hurricane season could be more active than traditional El Niño years.

Only time will tell.

However, many meteorologists will say that it is enough for a hurricane to make landfall for it to be an active season.

– CNN meteorologist Alison Shinchar contributed to this report.