Lula continues to lead in opinion polls, but Bolsonaro outperforms him for the first time in some sectors

Madrid, 6 (European press)

The candidate of the Workers’ Party (PT) and the former president of Brazil, Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, has an eight-point lead over Jair Bolsonaro in the first poll before the second round on October 30, although the far right reduces its disapproval of him. The government is outperformed for the first time among certain groups of voters.

Among the white men, Bolsonaro slightly outperformed Lula. Thus, although a margin of error could mean a technical tie, for now, according to an Ipec survey, 47 percent of those voters would vote for the Brazilian president compared to 45 who would support the Labor candidate.

It is the first time he has introduced himself to Lula among this segment of the population. As polls loomed last Sunday, Bolsonaro was making up for the loss, although he was always behind his rival, who got six million more votes than him in the first round.

However, Lula also continues to lead in this latest poll, thanks to the better image he projects in almost all groups of voters. Thus, he achieved 51 percent of vote intent against 43 percent for Bolsonaro.

On the other hand, Brazilian voters are clear about the meaning of their vote, as stated by 92 percent of those surveyed, with only 8 percent saying they could still change it. 40% will not vote for Lula at all, while 50% think the same for Bolsonaro.

Lola wins between blacks, poor people, and women; Bolsonaro, between the rich and the missionaries
Where things don’t seem to change at the moment is the trend that Lula has among voters of color and low incomes. Labor plans to vote with 55 percent of first-group voters, as well as among 64 percent of second-group voters.

For their part, only 39 percent of blacks and 29 percent of low-income people, around one minimum wage (192 euros), will vote for Bolsonaro’s re-election within three weeks.

In the high-income group of voters, more than five of the minimum wage (about 960 onwards) is where the far right will gain more support, a circumstance that has been repeated in previous polls. 65 percent will give him their vote, compared to 30 percent who will bet on Lola. In middle income, Bolsonaro also prevailed slightly, at 49 percent compared to 44 percent.

Lula also wins among female and male voters, at 53 percent and 49 percent, respectively, compared to 40 percent of women and 45 percent of men who would support Bolsonaro. During the election campaign, the president’s team tried unsuccessfully to change the bad image he had among female voters, even relying on the image of First Lady Michele Bolsonaro.

Among Catholics, Lula leads by 59 percent to 36 percent for his rival, which is better received among evangelical voters, and 61 percent favors him over Labor at 31 percent.

In regional distribution, Lula has a wide advantage in the northeast, while Bolsonaro is favored in the south, north, and midwest. In the southeastern region, where the three largest electoral centers – Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais and São Paulo – are located – there is a technical connection.