Lula with a high probability of winning the second round in Brazil

BRASILIA: Former president and candidate Luis Inacio Lula da Silva emerged today as the frontrunner to win the second round of elections in Brazil, scheduled for October 30, according to a survey.

Despite criticism in the country for the credibility of polling firms, the popular consultancy Eurasia Group has dared to report that the Labor presidential candidate has a 65 per cent chance of winning the upcoming dispute.

In that suit, the former mechanical switcher will face far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, a suitor who aspires to be re-elected by the Liberal Party.

According to the electoral justice system, the Labor leader, with 100% of the votes counted, officially received 48.43% of the valid votes in the first round compared to 43.20 for the former army.

“(Lula is the favourite) not only because he beat Bolsonaro by five points and was close to an absolute majority, but because his leadership in the second round will likely grow by one to two points, given the split of the remaining candidates,” one of the contents posted by the group.

These projections are based on an expected migration of votes from other candidates of 60 percent for Lula.

With that being the strong bets, the first opinion polls, due to be announced from Wednesday, should show the former union leader with about 53 percent of the vote and the former army chief with 47.

Eurasia Group is a political risk consulting and research firm founded in 1998 by American Ian Bremer, with offices in New York, Washington, London, Tokyo, Sao Paulo, San Francisco, Brasilia and Singapore.

The results of opinion polls in the first round, conducted on October 2, frustrate the expectations of opinion analysis, and in the assessment of experts, the number of errors is detrimental to the acceptance of optional inquiries.

In the presidential referendum, for example, the Institutes of Datafolha and Intelligence Research and Strategy Consulting (IPEC) gave less than 40 percent of the vote to Bolsonaro.

They also indicated that Lula might win without the need for a second round, but both failed.

Against all odds, the current CEO received more than 43 percent in Sunday’s consultation and polls from reputable companies and institutes gave him ratings ranging from 33 to 37 percent.