Mathematical models conflict with opinion polls in the Chilean referendum

Firms devoted to analyzing mathematical models are given the option of approval as the winner of the Chilean constitutional referendum, which goes against the trend of opinion polls that give the refusal even today victory.

More than 15 million citizens must go to the polls on Sunday, September 4 to determine the future of the Magna Carta project, set up by a committee with broad community representation, including indigenous peoples.

Polls about voting intentions, administered and published by the mainstream media, insisted throughout the process that a majority would vote against the text.

However, in an article published Today’s newspaper the counter Two companies specializing in artificial intelligence and mathematical modeling of opinions, feelings and language expressed in social networks, confirmed that approval will win by more than 55 points.

Doctor of Philosophy Francisco Vergara, a member of the Political Space group, explained that they subjected data extracted from more than 500 hours of social networks to analysis and this reflects clear support for the Basic Law.

A similar methodology allowed Gabriel Borek to be predicted to win 57 percent over Jose Antonio Caste in the second round of the presidential election with a final result of 55.62, Vergara explained.

Similarly, the Brazilian company Daoura, which specializes in measuring what it calls “the sense of social feeling”, always through digital networks, give consent 56% chance of winning.

They noted that the difference between their findings and surveys is that the latter are based on asking questions in a particular social sector, while they listen and process what people say.

However, both companies understand that the final results of the survey will confirm or not confirm the studies that have been conducted. (Latin press)