New Zealand could swing to the right in the next election

Polls for New Zealand’s Oct. 14 election, which could be one of the sharpest changes of the Covid-19 era, show voters are ready to topple the country’s most center-left government. Popular until the pandemic, the pro-centre-right coalition, whose policies have been marked by those of Jacinda Ardern, will decisively end an era.

The change in voting intentions is not due to a clear rise on the right, as the main parties, the left-wing Labor Party and the right-wing National Party, battle for the centre. New Zealanders, fed up with the pandemic, the cost of living crisis and frustration with their leaders, are shifting to the right in what some analysts see as a “change” election.

“If you’re a voter and you’ve been in a Labor government for almost six years, the price of fruit and vegetables is very high and they don’t use wealth tax,” explains Lamiya Imam, a political commentator and former Labor collaborator. , it’s natural for you to say, ‘Hey, I want something else,’ to see what’s going on.”

The 2020 election could not be more different, with New Zealanders, buoyed by an epidemic containment strategy praised around the world, enthusiastically voting to maintain a Labor government and rejecting calls for the populism they imposed overseas.

However, three years on, polls have begun to show that a majority of voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, reversing two decades of steady public satisfaction under Labor and National Party governments. New Zealand. In a 1News Verian poll published two weeks ago, Labor – which had won more than 50% of the vote in 2020 – fell to 26%. The opposition, The National Party, has a 36% lead, although its numbers are unchanged from the previous survey.

According to Ben Thomas, a political analyst and former member of the National Party, in 2023, the campaign slowed as parties across the spectrum reduced their policies to a single issue, how to reduce the high cost of living. “None of them believe their plans will help solve the cost-of-living crisis,” he added. The lack of enthusiasm leaves no easy way out for the major parties – whether the National Party, led by former Air New Zealand chief executive and incoming Member of Parliament Christopher Lacson, or the Labor Party, led by the Prime Minister. and career politician Chris Hipkins.

Cost of living

New Zealand governments are usually formed by coalitions, but recent polls suggest the National Party and its traditional partner Act, a smaller independent party, will not win enough seats to form a government. To become prime minister, Lacson could depend on long-serving Winston Peters, whose New Zealand First party could hold the balance of power. A staunch populist, Peters has been the deciding party in forming a government in the past, bringing both the Labor and National parties to power. After a period in the political wilderness where his party failed to re-enter parliament in 2020, Peters has drawn new fans with a platform condemning the Ardern government’s initial response to the Covid-19 pandemic (as a cabinet minister in 2020). and initiatives for the indigenous Maori people of New Zealand (Peter’s Maori).

Lacson had already announced in September that he was willing to join forces with Peters if it was the only way to power. Hipkins and Peters, who have ruled together in the past, have flatly ruled out forming a coalition again. According to several polls, Labor remains a long way from forming a government, even as support for its traditional left-wing partners, the Green Party and Te Padi May Ori, grows.

Hipkins was sworn in as prime minister in January, when Ardern made a surprise announcement of her resignation. Although the polls initially buoyed him, the political honeymoon did not last long. Four Labor cabinet ministers left one after the other, each in embarrassing circumstances.

The cost-of-living crisis overshadowed domestic problems for workers, fueled by a global recession, inflation hitting three-decade highs, rising grocery prices and persistent interest rate hikes. In January, Hipkins promised to focus only on “priority” issues, rejecting the cultural and environmental promises that characterized Ardern’s tenure. To the chagrin of some of his supporters he rejected wealth tax. Janet Wilson, the National Party leader’s press officer and now political commentator ahead of the 2020 election, says Labor under Hipkins has “not been faithful” to what voters expected.

“If you’re a party that says, ‘These are our principles,’ and three years later you show, ‘We’re not going to defend them now,’ you lose voters,” Wilson says. The National Party, for its part, “lacks new and innovative ideas,” he says. In this case, left and right minor parties have gained new support.

Political and social change

After the 2020 election, Ardern promised to “build back better from the learnings of the COVID-19 pandemic”. The reality is not so simple. In that time, New Zealand has twice contained domestic transmission of the virus and recorded 25 deaths. But in the years that followed, subsequent outbreaks spread widely, lockdowns and border closures continued, and a global recession began to bite, forcing the country to face the full consequences of the pandemic.

As the cost of living rose, some of those who had advocated drastic measures to slow the spread of the epidemic changed their minds. Ardern, the face of the successful pandemic response, has become an even more polarizing figure. Now, Imam says, Labor doesn’t dare mention its management during a public health crisis. “They don’t brag about the success of disease control policies or their achievements,” he says. “If you make a promise to your opponents, if you’re in government, the question is: ‘Then why didn’t you do it?’ Imam says.

However, the expected outcome was not the rightward turn seen in other Western countries in recent years, when public discontent peaked; New Zealand’s two main parties are not as polarized as in the US. But because the single chamber of parliament allows the winners to implement the political agenda, the referendum can be a catalyst for political and social change.

In the battle over the cost of living, the National Party has pledged tax cuts against Labor’s tax breaks and efforts to scrap taxes on fruit and vegetables. He has also promised cuts in public spending and measures against crime and social fraud. Experts are unclear to what extent the appeal of Conservative policies appeals to right-wing voters and to what extent that is explained by New Zealand’s reactionary events.

Thomas said a National Party-led government would be more conservative than Ardern’s “big vision” approach to politics. The former prime minister set ambitious and measurable goals – sometimes with mixed results – alongside “radical and transformative” social initiatives. “It’s ironic because the COVID-19 pandemic has shown that a strong government is capable of doing something big,” adds Thomas. “But the economic crisis has made people distrust big promises.”

Imam says a center-right government would be “much more right-wing” than its predecessors, citing the number of conservative lawmakers at the National Party Convention and the minority Law Party gaining more weight.

“I think the New Zealand government will lean to the right, but I don’t think voters should go with them,” he says. I believe these elections are going to move the country in a different direction.

Translated by Emma Reverter.