Some of the key real estate indicators in the world’s largest economies are at risk for bubble risk in the current post-epidemic period Bloomberg Economy. New Zealand, Canada and Sweden Spain (17), Italy (21) or Portugal (13) have the most worrying codes.
Major residential markets such as the United Kingdom (5), the United States (7) or France (10) are also at risk of a bubble, in fact in many OECD countries, prices are higher than they were before the 2008 financial crisis.
“The extraordinary stimulus that helped the world economy get back on its feet also triggers a new problem: housing bubbles,” he says. Chief Economist in charge of the report is Niraj Shah. “Commodity cocktails are raising home prices to levels not seen around the world,” he clarifies about the study of key economies.
And there are some of the elements that contribute to bubble risk Historically low interest rates, Unparalleled financial stimulation, Locked storage Ready to be used as warehouses, limited availability of housing and expectations for solid recovery in the world economy.
Other factors that have increased demand are the tax breaks that some governments offer homebuyers or the increasing interest of telecommunications workers looking for more space to change homes.
The The Bloomberg study analyzes five variables Predict the risk of a real estate bubble bursting
After New Zealand, Canada and Sweden and the countries mentioned above, the 10 countries at high risk include Norway (4), Denmark (6), Belgium (8) or Austria (9). For In Spain, the main risk factor comes from the increase in debtIt ranks fourth with a 9.8% increase after France, Colombia and Canada.
However, it offers lower price growth (1.7%) – surpassing only 1.6% in Italy.
But despite the current global risk, the study predicts that the situation will cool if key systems’ forecasts are maintained. “When risk measures such as lower interest rates or macroprudential policies increase, the coming period will be characterized by colder than decline,” the economist added.
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