November 28, 2023

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What will the CPI be in Argentina this year?

What will the CPI be in Argentina this year?

Buenos Aires – Surprising results of the open, simultaneous and obligatory primaries (PASO), devaluation of the currency ratified by the economic team, jumps in the parallel dollar and update of prices after the freeze ordered by the government Promoted revisions in forecasts Economic inflation For this year. In this context, consulting companies already expect this percentage to reach at least 140%.

Private sector economists agree on this during the months of August and September Consumer Price Index (CPI) It will remain in the double digits. While last month they calculated an inflation rate ranging between 11% and 12%, As for the current number, they warn that a higher number can be expected.

The latest official data was from July, when the index reached 6.3%, bringing the accumulated variance to 60.2% and the year-on-year variance to 113.4%.

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Expectations of new cuts will continue to put upward pressure on inflation expectations“, considered Lautaro Mochet, economist at the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, in the latest report on inflation, which stated that “iThe cumulative inflation rate during the first 44 months of Alberto Fernández’s presidency reached 609.8%. This is the highest GPA for a president since 1991.”

What will the CPI be in Argentina in the election year?

Given the current scenario, consulting firms do not see a positive outlook for inflation They expect it to rise by at least 140% over the course of the year. In some cases, expectations fall around 190%.

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Sebastian Meniscaldi, Director of the consulting company Echo Go Assessed in an interview with Bloomberg Linea that Inflation is likely to range between 170% and 190% through November“It is possible that in September it will already accumulate by 100%, so these numbers will arrive in November,” he analyzed.

  • Inflation 2023 Month by Month: January 6.0%; February 6.6%; March 7.7%; April 8.4%, May 7.8%, June, and July 6.3%.

Moreover, make it clear “December data will depend more on the government in power and its economic programme.” “This number is also very volatile.”He insisted.

Santiago Manoukian, Head of Research at EcolatinaFor its part, the consulting company said that the consulting company expects the consumer price index to reach 162% For a whole year.

from Freedom and progressAt the same time, they estimated that it would be within range 140%while Basic life-saving condoms We expect a higher standard “closer to 190%”.