November 28, 2023

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G20 in India: After a long conversation with Kristalina Georgieva, Alberto Fernandez expects a bittersweet end to the session with the IMF

G20 in India: After a long conversation with Kristalina Georgieva, Alberto Fernandez expects a bittersweet end to the session with the IMF

Alberto Fernandez and Kristalina Georgieva during an informal meeting at the G20 summit in India

(Special Envoy to New Delhi) Rodrigo Valdes, Director of the International Monetary Fund for Latin America. Enemy No. 1 By Alberto Fernandez and Sergio Massa For its technical proposal to carry out a strong adjustment of the national economy In exchange for the Council’s recommendation for basic disbursements to prevent Argentina from defaulting during July 2023.

Massa crossed Valdes’ distance in a scene that will long be remembered at the Treasury Palace, and Alberto Fernández ascended to the White House to block the adjustment promoted by IMF staff.

But the fund manager’s relationship with Alberto Fernandez y Massa was severed forever. This decisive battle is expected to continue by other means in the coming months. Valdés believes his prescription is correct, and will wait until November to insist on adjustment measures that the Balcarsi 50 party should implement in a political era marked by a possible run-off and the transition to a new government.

The President assumes that Valdés will insist on the amendment proposals, and took advantage of his visit to New Delhi to question the technical and political criteria that the Fund Manager intends to apply to the Argentine case. Without mentioning Valdes, Alberto Fernandez criticized IMF staff during an informal conversation with Biden, who admitted thatguerrilla between Washington and Buenos Aires.

Biden assured Alberto Fernandez that his National Security Advisor, Jack Sullivan, and Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, had softened the amendment demands promoted by Valdes and the technical staff that supports him. “We did what we could” Biden confirmed when the president expressed his discomfort with the IMF’s bureaucratic line.

Alberto Fernandez and Joseph Biden during their informal meeting at the G20 summit in India

with everything, In November there can be a perfect storm. The IMF Board must approve the final disbursement in 2023, while political uncertainty would shape two alternative events: a vote or an electoral transition. In the second round, like the Chinese box, it is still unknown whether Javier Miley will face Massa or Patricia Bullrich as an opponent.

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Alberto Fernandes bet at a dinner in New Delhi that Sergio Massa would beat Miley in the final run-off. However, this electoral confidence will not hinder the initiatives that Valdes intends to present to the IMF Board of Directors before the end of November.

In this case, the IMF President and Director agree that Argentina will not reach the Board meeting having achieved the goals, and there will be no logical relief supported by the drought that months ago led to the collapse of the national economy. It is known in advance that the absence of rain is a natural phenomenon that differs from an increase in public spending in the middle of an election campaign.

Alberto Fernández arrived in New Delhi with the aim of punishing the IMF for the intransigent attitude of Valdés and the staff in charge of Latin America. He achieved this political goal during his first speech at the G-20 summit.

Yesterday, early in the morning in Argentina, the head of state read: “Climate change has changed all our plans and schemesThe International Monetary Fund, to which we are indebted, clung to its doctrines and proved unable to devise new solutions to confront the disaster.Alberto Fernandez said.

A few meters away from the Argentine delegation, Kristalina Georgieva listened to the presidential criticism with a smug face. Before that speech, he had had a long conversation with Alberto Fernandez, and was not surprised by his sour tone.

The dialogue took place between Alberto Fernandez and the Managing Director of VIP area The G20 summit, which ended when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held the opening session of the multilateral forum. It was not an official secret meeting, they met by chance and the head of state took advantage of the opportunity.

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The crew played against us. We had an agreement, and they didn’t honor it– Alberto Fernandez accused.

you are right– Kristalina Georgieva answered succinctly.

Alberto Fernandez understood that the Director-General was open to listening to his criticism, and moved forward without using any diplomatic euphemisms.

It is Valdes who proposes adaptation measures. measures that can not be taken. “He suggested things that didn’t make sense,” the president added.

– Drought held everything. If they do not achieve the goals. “I know that,” Georgieva replied.

–OK. but I passed it on to Valdes. And now it’s complicating things for us… – insisted Alberto Fernandez.

I didn’t put it on. It wasn’t my decision– Georgieva is closed.

Rodrigo Valdes, IMF Director for Latin America

The relationship between Alberto Fernandes and Georgieva has always been good, despite the general manager’s unfulfilled promises. Georgieva assured the President that the IMF Board would reduce the additional fees in November 2021, which never happened. The additional fees would mean about $1,200 million more per year that Argentina would have to pay for the $44,000 million credit Mauricio Macri received in 2018.

Martin Guzmán began the campaign against flight attendants when he was Minister of Economy, and Sergio Massa has continued this mission, similar to a political illusion. Alberto Fernandez and Georgieva analyzed this issue – again – at the G20 summit in New Delhi. He was deja vu: They have already done the same at the G-20 Summit in Rome and Bali.

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However, the chief was excited. The Director General promised an institutional decision before the end of 2023. Alberto Fernández was able to confirm that, outside the IMF’s bureaucratic structure, the Board is preparing to discuss the feasibility of additional duties.

There are still no details about the date of treatment and the depth of the decision that will be taken. Alberto Fernández believes this would be the complete abolition of flight attendants, a practical hypothesis that is at odds with the lifestyle of officials who work at the IMF: this extra money finances flights, meals, allowances and per diems for staff. Labels Those who obey orders – in the case of Latin America – by Valdés.

And with a few weeks before his term ends, the president assumes he’ll be there The final chapter is bittersweet In Argentina’s relationship with the International Monetary Fund. This judgment of value implies a new offensive to regulate the economy – in the middle of an electoral result – and a possible institutional recognition of the arbitrary burden that surcharges impose on debtor countries.

“Trust me. You will see. There will be a victory for you.”Georgieva promised to Alberto Fernandez. Night was falling in New Delhi, as slender and sacred cows moved slowly in the middle of nowhere.