October 26, 2021

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Strange uncertainty in Germany: Angela Merkel's successor will be decided between "Simafor" or "Jamaica"

Strange uncertainty in Germany: Angela Merkel’s successor will be decided between “Simafor” or “Jamaica”

He salutes the Social Democratic Party (SPD) candidate for the German chancellorship, Olaf Schulz, after the first vote counting data in Germany’s general election (Image: Reuters)

(Chicago – special for Infobae) – On Sunday there was A clear winner in Germany’s general election. His name is Olaf Schultz. Owns Revival of his semi-dormant Social Democratic Party (SPD) Within just a few months of starting the campaign, she got more votes than any other candidate. He managed to maximize his chances to the point that he could reach the Chancellery in a few weeks. He led his party’s resurrection and Many believe he deserves the chance to form a coalition government It ended Chancellor Angela Merkel’s (CDU) 16-year reign.

but Among them is not Armin Laschet, the candidate who led the CDU this time, and who despite losing the election – by a very narrow 1.6% margin – is convinced that this is a “technical league” and that He can also form a government coalition.

This leaves everything in the hands of the third and fourth places: The Green Party (PV) and the Free Democrats (FDP). They will be the ones who end up deciding who will lead the new government. In their hands is the fate of both Schulze and Lachette. At the moment – and until the need becomes a fad – it is clear that The far-right AfD has been disqualified, which received significantly fewer votes than in the previous elections of 2017, and left party Which was the worst result in many years.

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Social Democrat Schulz feels entitled to have the first choice to form a government, and he said in his message between celebrations on Sunday night in Berlin: “The citizens of this country want change. They want the next chancellor to be the SPD candidateBut conservative Laschet does not want to give up. Despite his party receiving the lowest percentage of votes in its history in post-war Germany, Laschet at least succeeded in halting the rapid decline of his party in the final days before the elections. She helped the CDU and his party Bavarian brother, Christian Social Union (CSU) – commonly known as Confederation – will not be less than 20%This leaves the possibility of judgment open. He also believes that he has the right to form the next coalition. A vote for the Union is a vote against a left-led federal government. and then We will do our best to build a union led government“, She said.

Armin Laschet, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) candidate who came in second (Image: Reuters)
Armin Laschet, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) candidate who came in second (Image: Reuters)

This represents the political deadlock that pollsters have already predicted during the election campaign. A draw that could lead Germany to Several weeks of painstaking negotiations During which various coalitions are investigated. It is also clear from these elections that the era of strong parties and broad voters is over, as are stable two-party alliances. Most future ruling coalitions are likely to have three parties It will make finding middle ground more difficult than in the past. It almost seems that the electorate does not want either side to be able to govern as it pleases. As if they want all the leaders of the different parties Watch each other so no one rushes. The perfect form of control and balance,” was the analysis of the prestigious German magazine woman.

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The two possible coalitions considered most likely are the two coalitions known in German political jargon as “Traffic lights”, By the colors that designate the sides: The trio of SPD, Greens and FDP (red, green and yellow, respectively); Wave “Jamaica”, Also by group ringtones that correspond to those of that country’s flag and that will be combined by Federation, Greens and FDP (black, green, and yellow, respectively). There is a third option, which is the same that has ruled the “grand coalition” in the past eight years between the Union and the Social Democratic Party. Although both parties made it clear during the campaign that They had no desire to reconstitute such a government, at least as a junior partner. What, then, is the future of Germany in the post-Merkel era? Green conservative liberal government? Or an alliance between the Social Democratic Party and the Green Party with a liberal correction from the FDP?

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Christian Lindner, head of the Free Democratic Party, made it clear early in the campaign that He preferred to ally with the Union under the command of Chancellor Laschet. The two are friends and work well together. In addition, the two parties have united over the past four years in a governing coalition in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, where Laschet is the ruler. There are great ideological coincidences. BOTH parties They want to avoid tax increases And they have a climate strategy that relies heavily on technological improvements along with reducing red tape to build wind farms or solar power, for example.

Green Party candidate Annalena Barbock holds an important negotiating message with fellow Liberals Robert Habeck to form any coalition (Image: EFE)
Green Party candidate Annalena Barbock holds an important negotiating message with fellow Liberals Robert Habeck to form any coalition (Image: EFE)

And therefore, The position of the Green Party will be decisive. But there are internal differences. While the party’s leader and candidate, Annalena Barbock, has already said so He sees the biggest political coincidence with the Social Democratic PartyThe party’s co-chair, Robert Habeck, is a supporter Keep all options open. In Berlin, Habeck is believed to want to be the next economy minister regardless of the government partner. And although the Greens will face a difficult situation in the alliance with the Union and the Free Democratic Party, they can achieve a lot in the negotiations. for example, They can be left with far more ministries than would correspond to their electoral weight Dealing with everything related to the environment.

The coming days will be the days of resonant statements and frantic negotiations. Schulze and Lachey both want to appear as the “counsellor”. They will have to be broad but resolute, negotiators with clear boundaries, and with the conviction that they will not only be able to lead Germany, but also be able to be at the forefront. European Union locomotive. In short, far from the colors of the alliance, the next chancellor looks as much as possible Angela Merkel, the woman who has run Germany successfully for the past 16 years.

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